Dave Teaches You About Statistics

September 22nd, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

Dave is still crusading over his exclusion from the Twitter SUL. Today, Dave would like to teach you about a few different statistical concepts:

It’s pretty clear something happened in July.

We know this much — TechCrunch was dropped from the Suggested User List, right around the time their follower count started heading down. As to why, we can only speculate that it was because they ran a piece that Twitter didn’t like.

7/16/09: Twitter’s Internal Strategy Laid Bare: To Be “The Pulse Of The Planet.”

People have always questioned whether there was a connection between being on the list and not being too critical of Twitter. At this point, there isn’t much doubt that the connection is there.

Here are the concepts that Dave would like to teach you about:

Sample Size — It is commonly believed that you need to have a large sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions. Dave disagrees. In his world, one data point is sufficient.

Causation — In Dave’s world, post hoc ergo propter hoc isn’t a logical fallacy, but a natural law. TechCrunch was removed from the SUL after that article, therefore that article was the cause of the removal.

Correlation — With the Dave Winer statistics model, you don’t need to consider evidence that you don’t like. Have any of the folks on the SUL written critically of Twitter? Who cares? That doesn’t matter! As long as the data fits with your theory, accept it, otherwise ignore it!

Science just got a whole lot easier.

Dave Admits Hypocrisy

September 9th, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

Today he admits that he’s a hypocrite. Turns out that River2 ships with its own, hand-picked SUL.

Am I A Hypocrite?

Sure. Of course. I am a totally f*cked up human being.

Of course, he only admits that because it’s easier than admitting that he doesn’t like the Twitter SUL only because he’s not on it, and that his fervor comes from jealousy and hurt-ego more than any principled stand he’s taking.

That’s pretty clear if you look at his explanation for the difference between Twitter’s SUL and his. I also found it amusing that he calls Twitter the only game in town — this from the guy who ran (is running?) a competing service.

Dave, Dave, Dave. Why not just go ahead and admit to yourself, and everyone else, that the real issue you have with Twitter’s SUL is that you see follower counts as a Twitter scoreboard and you’re pissed that the owners of the game you’re trying to win keep helping your competitors?

Dave Really Hates SULs

September 8th, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

We’ve been saying for quite some time that Dave doesn’t have a principled objection to Twitter’s Suggested User’s List and that his only real complaint is that he’s not on it. We got an email today which lends a lot of credibility to that.

Imagine there is another Twitter-like service out there that had a SUL. Imagine that Dave has posted about this service before, and is an active user of it. Can you imagine a situation in which he wouldn’t have included that service’s SUL in one of his rants?

I sure can:

Dave hasn't complained about the FriendFeed SUL because he's on it

Dave hasn't complained about the FriendFeed SUL because he's on it

What’s An Asshole?

August 26th, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

The Real Asshole Dave thinks saying Obama is like Hitler makes someone an asshole. That might be true, but I’d like to propose an additional or alternate definition.

An asshole, is someone who thinks that people who say things that offend them should be tortured and killed.

These people are so stupid they need to be slapped in the face to wake them up. They need to have their mouths washed out with soap and be sent to bed without dinner. They need to be sent into hard labor and allowed to die of starvation.

…or, even worse (emphasis supplied)…

If you think Obama is Hitler you deserve to meet with others who agree with you, starving and freezing and dying in a cattle car, sitting in each others’ excrement, on your way to a concentration camp and its ovens and gas chambers, along with your children.

Want another definition of an asshole? Someone who sees a disgusting post like that in Google Reader and clicks the “like” button. Like these folks:

10 people liked this – Alberto Serafin Lopez, Anil Dash, Claude LaFrenière, Evil Poet, Fred McHale, Josh Fraser, Lloyd Davis, Mats Lindholm, jcator, px

Dave Re-Debates Lessig and Re-Loses

August 25th, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

Dave stirred up an old debate with one of the titans of intellectual property law. Still believing he got the better of Larry Lessig, he links to an old post in which his course of action is to call Lessig’s analogy (comparing source code to published novels) flawed, and then create a number of analogies to Lessig’s analogy (being unable to sing a song just by having the score) that are themselves hopelessly flawed.

Fact is, in that old debate, Dave demonstrated a fundamental misunderstanding of how copyright law works.

He says programmers give the public nothing in return for copyrights. How insulting. We give our time and our ideas, just like lawyers and college professors.

There’s no equivalent of source code in his two professions. If there were, I could just invoke the Lessig Defense in court and get the exact same result, every time, and even better not have to bother with a lengthy trial.

The problem, of course, is that neither “time” nor “ideas” are protected by copyright only the exploitation of creative works. So as a closed-source programmer’s contribution to the world of intellectual property goes, there really isn’t one. See, for example, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. Because Austen had to release her work in order to distribute it, we all get the benefit of it entering the public domain decades later. This is not the case with software. The only way it will enter the public domain decades later is by reverse engineering and/or leaking it. At that point, though, it will be so antiquated as to be almost useless (see, for example, Frontier).

On the contrary, requiring software to release its source in order to be granted copyright protection would allow us all to learn right now, increasing the capability and knowledge of programmers the world over.

Still, Winer getting schooled by Lessig so badly that Dave doesn’t even know he lost isn’t all that strange. Also not strange, but noteworthy, is Dave pointing to the release of Frontier into the open source community as an example that he was actually right:

[I]n 2004 I released my main work under the GPL. There was no parade, no new respect or even thanks from people outside the community that already used the software. Did it inspire any young would-be designers? Time will tell, but it’s looking doubtful. Just saying it’s harder to influence the future than it should be, or maybe not — who knows.

The premise, clearly faulty to all of us, is that Dave’s work is so amazing that it should have inspired a young would-be designer, or that it was parade-worthy. Even aside from that, his situation isn’t like what Lessig was proposing. He released it to try to save it from fading into obscurity, rather than initially in order to bolster the community . . . it was one last attempt to make a bloated and dying software platform meaningful. Now, he says because that didn’t, that source disclosure is dangerous?

At the end of the day, it comes down to a very simple principle upon which Copyright (and patent) are based: in order to encourage contributions to the world in the arts and sciences, the government is permitted to offer those who contribute their works to the public a temporary monopoly on their exploitation.

The key here is that the creative folks are expected to contribute. In the day and age that copyright was conceived, there wasn’t a way to exploit one’s creativity without releasing it into the wild. These days, creativity can be holed up and hidden away in compilation and encryption, never to be seen by anyone but its author, but still granted a monopoly all the same.

I can’t say that I agree with all of what Lessig has to say, but he certainly has a very valid point as it relates to the copyright of source code.

Dave ‘Fixes’ The SUL Problem

August 24th, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

I got an email back in July pointing me to a particularly idiotic post of Dave’s as he searches for a solution to the “problem” that is the Suggested Users List. He has several recommendations, but he leads off with the most entertaining among them.

First, he proposes a 30 day limit for time spent on the SUL. This is not a difficult suggestion to translate. Prolific Twitter members are a finite resource, so forcing people off of the list every 30 days would hasten Dave’s inevitable placement thereon.

Second, he wants to take away followers from people on the list now. Yes, really. His proposal is to figure out how many followers each of the folks on the SUL would have gotten in 30 days and then take all of the others they gained over that time away.

So if on average, over the last few months, a member of the list would have gotten 100K new followers, but actually received 800K, he or she would lose 700K followers. It’s still a gift of 100K followers, nothing to sneeze at. (And if it’s true, as Tim O’Reilly says, that they don’t matter, then losing some is nothing to complain about.)

I can scarcely put into words how myopic and outlandish this idea is. He seems to believe that “followers”, rather than being actual users — actual people, are just a commodity to buy, sell, or trade. Which of those those 700,000 followers are getting the boot? Are they allowed to re-follow? Are they going to be notified that their follow list is just spontaneously being changed by Twitter for no reason apparent to them? The users can already unfollow if they’re not liking what they’re getting.

If they’re not reading what they’re getting, the only value they hold is to those who put so much stock in their follower count. Makes no sense, really, unless you measure the size of your e-peen by the number of Twitter followers you have, something Dave clearly does.

A Little EOW Navel-gazing

August 23rd, 2009 by EyeOnWiner

Note: ssues, both personal and professional, required a bit of a break from most blogging and then there was a bit of procrastination on account of the the sheer mountain of Winer-bullshit-backlog that just could not go un-commented upon. Many thanks to BSM for picking up the slack in the interim.

BSM’s last post (regarding Winer’s admission that he did not create RSS) got two inbound links of note.

First, a link from ycombinator, which provided a modest flow (and screwed the scale on our stats graph all to hell). They decided, after reviewing the site as a whole, that the link posted was of no value. Now that’s some seriously Winer-esque, ad hominem reasoning that you really have to admire. They didn’t even bother trying to mask it. They did quote wikipedia randomly, though, so I’m sure they had a valid point.

Second, the post got a mention in the Angry Mac Bastards podcast. I had an hour to kill tonight so I decided to listen to what they had to say and kept listening because they are a) angry, b) informed, and c) funny. It also helps that they agree that Winer is a “new media douchebag”.

The first nine minutes of the podcast are about Dave’s “oh poor Scoble” post and is followed immediately by their talk about the site/that post. If you enjoy that, the rest of it should be right up your alley too. The show is mostly tech with a mac slant and not so much totally mac focused, so even we unhip PC users were able to follow along.

Dave Winer Admits He Didn’t Create RSS

August 14th, 2009 by Bullshit Mancuso

Catch it before he edits it out. Dave Winer admitted today in a blog post that he didn’t invent RSS:

… we pulled a fast one on Netscape in 1999 by throwing in the towel on our syndication format and using theirs instead.

For years, Winer has puffed himself up with the claim that he’s the coinventor of RSS, and a lot of bloggers and journalists bought it. His claim is based on the false premise that because Netscape incorporated some of his suggestions in RSS, he invented it with them. By the same logic, the guy who introduced the BLINK tag invented HTML. You can’t invent something that existed before you got involved in it. You can popularize it, as he did, but it’s bullshit to call yourself its coinventor.

Dave Winer did not invent RSS. The format was created in 1999 by Ramanathan V. Guha and Dan Libby at Netscape. Winer invented ScriptingNews format, an early stab at syndication that died when he switched to RSS.

Michael Arrington vs. Dave Winer

June 6th, 2009 by Bullshit Mancuso

Michael Arrington appears to have seen the light about Dave Winer, from the looks of this comment he made on TechCrunch:

Dave: just stop. you’ll do and say anything to get what you want. even lie. even delete previous messages and reverse your opinion.

http://eyeonwiner.org/archives/2008/dave-winer-is-loren-feldmans-puppet

http://www.techcrunch.com/wp-content/davefeldman.png

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/03/13/the-rules-apply-to-everyone/

you have no integrity. you have no core ethics. it’s just all about you all the time.

This latest blowup began when Winer questioned Arrington’s integrity because TechCrunch is one of the suggested users recommended on Twitter. Winer sent a direct message to TechCrunch writer MG Siegler telling him to “stop fucking with RSS” because of an article arguing that RSS is dead. (Note that the article was by Steve Gillmor, not Siegler — Winer is a fucking genius.)

As you can see, Arrington is using Eye on Winer as a resource to document Winer’s hypocrisy. We compliment him on his good taste. They were best bros going back to the early days of TechCrunch — Arrington once served as his lawyer — but Arrington seems to have figured out why so many people in tech will never work with Winer.

If you know anyone else who hasn’t learned this lesson, send them to us.

Dave Winer’s Obsession with Twitter Continues

May 28th, 2009 by Bullshit Mancuso

Nice example of projection from Dave Winer on Twitter:

Twitter is a big deal now. Calacanis used to be #1, now he’s a nobody. For a guy like him the difference is huge. And the resentment real.

About 21 hours ago from web

Winer keeps going on and on and on about Twitter’s suggested users list, which gave some celebs and tech A-listers many hundreds of thousands of followers compared to his 20,000. But as he bitches and moans about how follower counts like his used to make you a big deal, he completely ignores the fact that most of the people who read him on Twitter have followers in the hundreds or lower. He was perfectly happy with the inequalities of the system while he was on top. Now he’s Che Fucking Guevara.

Show of hands: Does anyone else other than Winer give a shit about the suggested users list or Twitter follow counts? Thanks to Twitter, we have learned that a 50-something obscure software developer wakes up every single day and gets his Depends in a bunch because Ashton Kutcher and Oprah and P. Diddy have more followers than he does. It’s a sad but hilarious spectacle to watch him go ape over any system that quantifies popularity and puts him at the top — as long as he stays there — and go all jilted lover when he falls off it.

Earth to Dave: You are not famous. You are Internet famous, which only means anything when something is new. When the rest of the world shows up, as they have on Twitter, the genuinely famous show up and that’s the end of your celebrity. On Twitter now your Internet fame is worthless. Ashton Kutcher craps out bigger celebrities than you each morning.